Centro de Documentación OLADE -

This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of existing energy development policies in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries as contribution to achieve the goals proposed in their NDCs regarding GHG emissions by 2030 and, if necessary, to propose much stronger energy efficiency measures and increased penetration by renewable energy sources that afford increased regional and sub-regional security certainty regarding fulfillment of these goals. To this end, an energy forecasting exercise was performed taking 2015 as the base year and with a horizon of 2030 for the LAC region, in turn subdivided into 2 countries and 4 subregions: Brazil, Mexico, Central America, Andean Subregion, Southern Cone and the Caribbean. Given the disparity in the references taken by countries in presenting their NDCs, for the purpose of this outlook, the first thing that was done was to build a “business as usual” (BAU) baseline scenario to serve as a base for calculating GHG emissions reductions. One of the main assumptions of this scenario is the growth trend in consumption of each energy source and preservation of the proportional structure of the supply matrix in the different energy chains.